Arkieva Supply Chain Link Blog.
Creating the link between better supply chain planning and decisions.
RECENT POSTS
Lessons From the Operating Curve for the Dual Government COVID-19 Objectives: Reopen the Economy and Eliminate COVID-19
There is plenty of material being written and posted on the challenges, estimating the growth in COVID19 incidences, and thoughts about the economy. The purpose of this is to pull from experiences in the trenches in shifting OPCURVE to provide some guidance on actions to take to help the nation achieve both critical goals.
Some Basics on the Value of S Curves and Market Adoption of a New Product
An ongoing challenge for any firm is estimating demand for new products. This is especially true when the product has new technology or is replacing an existing product and the additional function in the new product is limited. Often a mathematical construct called an S curve is helpful. This blog provides an overview of S curves and why they can be helpful.
Taking the Mystery Out of the Rapid Growth of COVID-19 and the Purpose of Social Distancing – Some Basics for Octogenarians
The spread of the COVID19 virus is a major concern of everyone. Typically, two critical questions are being asked: why it seemed to grow so quickly over the last few weeks and what is the impact of social distancing. This blog provides a kitchen table explanation of “rapid growth” and how social distancing might dampen growth.
Conditional Probability Made Easy – Heart of Machine Learning
Probabilities are persuasive in supply chains and analytic methods – especially in machine learning where conditional probability is a dominant underlying structure that makes or breaks the success of an application. In this blog, we will learn how to take the mystery out of the term ‘conditional probability’.
Safety Stock for Raw Materials – A View from the Trenches and Importance of Community Intelligence
A common question is how to best manage safety stock for critical raw materials that are critical to the production of the exit product...
What-If Scenario Planning – Part 3
Picking up from where I left off in my previous blog, I will look at a few more scenarios in both short and long terms in this blog. Even though Brexit is the theme for these scenarios, the underlying principles apply to any situation with uncertainty in supply planning.
Optimization and Central Planning: Compass or Advanced Navigation
Two ongoing questions are: (1) when an organization migrates from an Excel-based central/supply/master plan is it best to go to a rule-based method or an optimization-based method and (2) is optimization a compass that identifies true north or is it an advanced navigation system. This blog outlines my view and alternative views on each question.
“Optimized” Inventory Forecasting a Co-Product of Optimized Central Planning
In a recent blog on Inventory Forecasting the core challenges and business importance of estimating inventory are outlined. A projected inventory position across time (plan) is a natural co-product of most central or master planning models that match assets with the demand to create a projected supply line linked to demand.
Coronavirus: A Substantial Supply Chain Interruption – The Importance of Digital Supply Chain
The tragic outbreak of the Coronavirus has again demonstrated the need for ever vigilant health care services and fast response. It has demonstrated that supply chain interruptions from a manufacturing excursion to a port strike to an infectious disease outbreak require two actions from any firm: preparation and response.
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