Time Series Forecasting Basics

In this blog we briefly cover some key insights for successful time series forecasting: (a) Profiling the Shape of the Curve is the first stage, and the first step is assessing if the time series is stationary. (b) The forecast method identified must capture the shape and be able to project the shape across time. (c) There are limits in historical and no amount of “fancy math” can overcome them.

Lessons From the Operating Curve for the Dual Government COVID-19 Objectives: Reopen the Economy and Eliminate COVID-19

There is plenty of material being written and posted on the challenges, estimating the growth in COVID19 incidences, and thoughts about the economy. The purpose of this is to pull from experiences in the trenches in shifting OPCURVE to provide some guidance on actions to take to help the nation achieve both critical goals.

Some Basics on the Value of S Curves and Market Adoption of a New Product

An ongoing challenge for any firm is estimating demand for new products.  This is especially true when the product has new technology or is replacing an existing product and the additional function in the new product is limited. Often a mathematical construct called an S curve is helpful. This blog provides an overview of S curves and why they can be helpful.

Taking the Mystery Out of the Rapid Growth of COVID-19 and the Purpose of Social Distancing – Some Basics for Octogenarians

The spread of the COVID19 virus is a major concern of everyone. Typically, two critical questions are being asked: why it seemed to grow so quickly over the last few weeks and what is the impact of social distancing. This blog provides a kitchen table explanation of “rapid growth” and how social distancing might dampen growth.

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