In this blog we briefly cover some key insights for successful time series forecasting: (a) Profiling the Shape of the Curve is the first stage, and the first step is assessing if the time series is stationary. (b) The forecast method identified must capture the shape and be able to project the shape across time. (c) There are limits in historical and no amount of “fancy math” can overcome them.
Some time ago, I had been trying to help a business improve its statistical forecasting. We tried different parameters and different forecasting algorithms but the statistical forecast for about half of the products could not be improved no matter what we tried. We decided to do a deep dive to understand the reason.
Isn’t the goal of a successful retailer to give the customer what they want, when they want it? And isn’t today’s customer changing their mind on what they want quicker than ever? Quick trend changes are driven by this customer and retailers must be flexible to survive...
Data Science Without Modeling Impact is a Path to Disaster – Simulation to Explore the Impact of Group Size on COVID-19 Spread
In this blog post, we will briefly review some examples of being “COVID-19 adrift” with just data and then focus on the primary task – demonstrating how modeling can be used to understand the impact of group size on COVID-19 spread.
Digital Transformation is a popular term being used in today’s supply chain world. This can mean different things for your organization based on your company’s maturity. In this blog, you will learn the five key points to consider in a supply chain transformation journey.
Insight from Applied Statisticians for Forecasting: Is It Worth the Effort and the Mirage of Random Variation?
In this blog, we will illustrate through an example of these potential pitfalls (unanchored, random variation, and narrow metrics) and potential negative impact on a firm.
In this blog, we will focus on protecting your investment. The example involves demand variability versus prediction variability and its impact on inventory policy and operational efficiencies. It is loosely based on a real situation from the trenches.
When and how to invest in supply chain management technology is a critical question for all firms that is not a one-time question, but ongoing...
Invest in Supply Chain Management Technology: Survival and Ability to Respond to Emerging Challenges
When and how to invest in supply chain management technology is a critical question for all firms that is not a one-time question but ongoing. This blog will observe the real business value is “survival and responsiveness” and elaborate on the challenges with this evaluation.
The right technology can provide a solution to maintaining optimal supply chain planning, but how can you justify the investment?