In this blog we briefly cover some key insights for successful time series forecasting: (a) Profiling the Shape of the Curve is the first stage, and the first step is assessing if the time series is stationary. (b) The forecast method identified must capture the shape and be able to project the shape across time. (c) There are limits in historical and no amount of “fancy math” can overcome them.
In the past few days, the news of the blockage of the Suez Canal by a massive container ship called the Ever Given has been dominating the news, so much so, that even kids are talking about it. The phrase ‘supply chain’ is now being mentioned more often than ever before in news media. Some outlets have estimated the cost...
The purpose of this blog is to explain a basic costing challenge in factories and their impact on critical SCM analysis and decisions.
Over the past year, the Arkieva Supply Chain Link Blog provided thought leadership and informative posts on supply chain strategy tips, trends, and news. Here we have compiled a list of our popular supply chain posts from 2020.
With the holiday season, everyone is making their wish list and checking it twice. Here are some ideas to add to any director of supply chain's wish list.
For a new technology to be successful it requires the correct seasoning which requires time in the trenches. This blog captures lessons from two past gurus.
Investing in SCM Technology: Sense and Respond – A Vision from A Long Time Ago in A Galaxy Far, Far Away
Having a vision of the future is important to help coordinate SCM initiatives towards the “global good” – but having a vision is worthless without effective work in the trenches. In fact, a far better vision is “sense and respond” SAR which moves an organization from a big bang paradigm periodic driven approach that currently dominates SCM even in best in class organizations to an “as needed” basis.
Before the current set of analytics and SCM experts, it was the OR/MS profession that drove the development and successful application of analytic and data methods to improve supply chain performance. INFORMS continues to lead in the ongoing challenge of more intelligent and responsive supply chains. In this blog, we will point out some keynote addresses from the current meeting of relevance to successful SCM technology investments.
“Chaos, complexity, and uncertainty” often victimize an organization’s supply chain outstripping the ability of spreadsheet-based tools to respond intelligently. Sounds like 2020? In fact, this comes from one of the original Jedi Knights Dr. Harlan Crowder in a 1997 paper titled “Helpful Hints for OR/MS Consultants”. The purpose of this blog is to revisit this paper since the hints for success are as relevant now as they were then.
The purpose of a vision in this journey is to create a focus on the implementation of decision technology as tools to overcome inherent organizational cognitive limitations of bounded rationality and uncertainty bias to improve SCM. This blog provides some critical lessons to protect a firm’s investment in technology.