Statistical Forensics – The Danger of Being Data and Not Operations Management Driven

As previously discussed, being only data-driven can be a road to disaster for COVID-19 or supply chain management. To avoid this disaster requires skill sets from operations management (OM). In this blog we demonstrate that the probability a person actually has COVID-19 antibodies depends heavily on other factors besides the “raw data” of the test results.

COVID-19 & SCM – Importance of Operations Management to Overcome the Limitations of Data-Driven

An often-heard theme in supply chain management (SCM) and COVID-19 is “data-driven” – being data-driven is the path to success. For COVID-19 “science-driven” is often said in the same sentence. For SCM demand or customer-driven replaces “science”. This blog will point out a few examples in the COVID-19 challenge demonstrating COVID-19 is an OM challenge.

Supply Chain Challenges in Turbulent Times – The Importance of Preparedness and Responsiveness

The current COVID-19 situation highlight the supply chain management challenges in any turbulent time.  In this blog we identify five key points: preparedness, larger good, anticipate, and not react to events, responsiveness, and an intelligent stochastic estimate of demand. 

COVID-19 Data Analysis Basics – Taking the Mystery Out of Smoothing Daily Counts

We see graphs of COVID-19 events on a regular basis. One of the most common is a bar chart for daily new events (COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths). Recently in presentations, smoothing methods used to overcome limitations is presenting the raw daily data. This blog will take some of the mystery out of smoothing methods.

COVID-19 Taking the Mystery Out of the APEX Curve and Some Basics on Restoring “Normal”

This blog provides some basic information on the curve, relates statistical concepts to policy and actions, and examines policy options for a safe restart relating them to the APEX curve. There are three essential groups of action to begin a safe restart: testing, detailed understanding of the impact of mitigation actions, and the ability to do detailed tracking.

Some COVID-19 Data Analysis Basics – New Events, Cum Events, and Logarithms

We see graphs of COVID-19 events on a regular basis these days. Two common ones are bar charts for daily new events (COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths) and the “sweeping curve” to capture a cumulative number of events. Additionally, log transformations are mentioned. The purpose of this blog is to shed a bit of light on these curves and the role of the log transformation.

Lessons From the Operating Curve for the Dual Government COVID19 Objectives: Reopen the Economy and Eliminate COVID19

There is plenty of material being written and posted on the challenges, estimating the growth in COVID19 incidences, and thoughts about the economy. The purpose of this is to pull from experiences in the trenches in shifting OPCURVE to provide some guidance on actions to take to help the nation achieve both critical goals.

Taking the mystery out of the rapid growth of COVID19 and the purpose of social distancing – some basics for Octogenarians

The spread of the COVID19 virus is a major concern of everyone. Typically, two critical questions are being asked: why it seemed to grow so quickly over the last few weeks and what is the impact of social distancing. This blog provides a kitchen table explanation of “rapid growth” and how social distancing might dampen growth.

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