Tools of the Trade: National Puzzle Day, Probability and the Board Game Risk

National Puzzle Day is January 29th. It is a day Arkieva celebrates because the ongoing challenge of smarter supply chain decisions involves supersized puzzles and games. This year we will focus on probabilistic forecasting using the board game Risk.  This blog will show how Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to estimate the average number of “wins”, but critically the range of possible “wins” across some interval.

By |2022-09-20T08:22:58-04:00January 25th, 2022|Supply Chain Optimization|

Data Science Without Modeling Impact is a Path to Disaster – Simulation to Explore the Impact of Group Size on COVID-19 Spread

In this blog post, we will briefly review some examples of being “COVID-19 adrift” with just data and then focus on the primary task – demonstrating how modeling can be used to understand the impact of group size on COVID-19 spread.

By |2024-02-21T13:54:34-05:00December 1st, 2020|COVID-19, Data Science, Demand Management, Supply Planning|

Data Science Tools of the Trade: Monte Carlo Computer Simulation

Monte Carlo Discrete Event Computer Simulation is a particularly powerful and flexible “tool of the trade” for a wide range of challenges in supply chain and operations management. This blog provides some basics on MCDECS, the next blog will use MCDECS to explain why limiting the size of a gathering helps reduce the spread of COVID-19.

By |2024-02-21T13:56:05-05:00November 24th, 2020|COVID-19, Data Science, Machine Learning|

Lessons for COVID-19 and Supply Chain Management – Six Months Later

Over the past six months, significant progress has been made in understanding COVID-19 and reducing its health and economic impact. In this blog, we will not rehash this information, but to identify open issues in handling the current challenge of tackling COVID-19 and relate this to the challenge of managing supply chains.

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