Tools of the Trade: National Puzzle Day, Probability and the Board Game Risk
National Puzzle Day is January 29th. It is a day Arkieva celebrates because the ongoing challenge of smarter supply chain decisions involves supersized puzzles and games. This year we will focus on probabilistic forecasting using the board game Risk. This blog will show how Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to estimate the average number of “wins”, but critically the range of possible “wins” across some interval.