Two Penny Model and COVID-19 Breakthrough Cases – Avoiding Data Driven Disaster
Learn how a simple binomial model can help anticipate the future including COVID-19 breakthrough cases just as models help a firm estimate it's future.
Classical Supply Chain Management Confronts its Quantum Revolution – the Path to Rapid Intelligent Response (RIR)
COVID-19 direct and ancillary events have made clear that uncertainty is an inherent part of the demand-supply network structure. Every firm, on a regular basis, faces “risk situations" such as manufacturing excursion, unexpected new demand or loss of demand, component supplier interruption, etc. This has placed risk management and rapid intelligent response (RIR) front and center in SCM discussions.
Five Steps to Develop an Effective S&OP Process – Step 4: Balance Supply and Demand
Over the past 5 weeks, Jeff Ondria has hosted a set of short interviews on LinkedIn about the five distinct steps to develop an effective S&OP process. In today's blog, we discuss step 4 Balancing Supply & Demand where we will answer some key questions with respect to balancing supply and demand.
CPE Planning Level, IBP, Elixirs, and the Ongoing Challenge
In SCM there is an ongoing flow of elixirs (magic potion) from ‘false prophets’ claiming that they are an easy path to improved performance. A recent elixir is IBP followed by “doing central planning at the family level” to neutralize the uncertainty associated with estimating demand at the product level. This blog will illustrate the challenge in this effort since factories produce products, not families.
Target Inventory and Central Planning Engines (Models) – Avoiding the Runaway Train
Often inventory is considered the simplest component of supply chain management that can successfully be managed separately. The purpose of this blog is to provide some observations to avoid the runaway train. We will first review the basics of CPE and then address the use of target inventory (specifically ending finished goods inventory EFGI) in CPEs.
Tools of the Trade: How to Compare / Combine Diverse Time Series – “Normalizing”
A reoccurring challenge in comparing and combining diverse time series in demand forecasting is the “scale” – as it is in combining metrics. Rescaling is a powerful but simple method to help with this issue enabling demand planners to focus on similarities of shape. This blog provides an example of one method called normalization.
AI/ML, SCM, The Holy Grail, and Helpful Information from Foresight
In this blog, we point the reader to a recent article “Humachine”, which identifies the general challenge of implementing decision technology to improve SCM decision making resulting in improved organizational performance and the importance of experience in the trenches.
Time Series Forecasting Basics
In this blog we briefly cover some key insights for successful time series forecasting: (a) Profiling the Shape of the Curve is the first stage, and the first step is assessing if the time series is stationary. (b) The forecast method identified must capture the shape and be able to project the shape across time. (c) There are limits in historical and no amount of “fancy math” can overcome them.
Guide to a Successful Leap to Warp Speed in Central / Supply Planning – LP Genie
Learn when it is time to move from RCCP to LP Genie for your CPE as part of your organization’s journey pulling from years in the trenches and current ongoing activities with clients.
Cost and Complexity – Factory Perspective on Inventory Golden Rules
The purpose of this blog is to explain a basic costing challenge in factories and their impact on critical SCM analysis and decisions.