What-if Wednesday: Forecast Parameter Simulation – Beta Multiplicative Method

In this week’s What-if Wednesday post, Arkieva Supply Chain Optimization Consultant – Abhishek Shah – shares the results of a what-if demand forecast simulation using the Winters multiplicative beta parameter.

By | April 19th, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Multiplicative Forecast Simulation Using Alpha

In this week's What-if Wednesday post, Arkieva Supply Chain Optimization Consultant - Abhishek Shah - shares the results of a what-if demand forecast simulation using the Winters multiplicative alpha parameter.

By | March 29th, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Statistical Forecasting with Damping Factors

In the previous What-if Wednesday previous posts, we experimented with the three parameters of Holt-Winters method, namely; alpha, beta, and gamma. This week we are going to run some tests with the damping factor.

By | March 15th, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Seasonality Forecast Simulation (Gamma Parameter)

Seasonality forecast simulation: what is the effect of changing the gamma parameter in Holt-Winters forecasting method?

By | March 1st, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Forecast Simulation – Changing The Beta Parameter in a Forecasting Method

In our previous blog, we experimented with Alpha - the intercept parameter of the Holt-Winters method - to see how the forecast gets affected as the weight changes. This week we are going to run similar tests with Beta, the trend parameter. Learn how you can use your recent sales trends to improve future forecasts.

By | February 15th, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

[Infographic] Forecast Improvement Steps: Simulate, Measure, Refine

The forecasting process in demand planning sets the stage for all other planning activities including bill of material (BOM) and finished goods inventory optimization. Demand forecasts can also affect perfect order fulfillment rates, customer satisfaction and ultimately bottom line results.

By | February 13th, 2017|Forecasting, Infographics|0 Comments

B2B Demand Sensing: 7 Things You Must Know

In webinar on B2B Demand Sensing, we discuss practical examples of how upstream manufacturers are using B2B Demand sensing to reduce inventory costs and identify additional sales opportunities.

By | February 9th, 2017|Demand Planning, Demand Sensing, Forecasting|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Forecast Simulation – What Happens if You Change The Alpha Parameter in a Forecasting Method?

From time to time, clients ask me about the effect of changing a parameter of a forecasting method. Recently, I got the idea of creating a series of blog posts where I would simulate the results of tweaking these parameters. Join me as we unpack a couple simple ways to improve your forecasts.

By | February 1st, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|2 Comments

[Simulation Results] How Does a Change in Demand From a One-Time Event Impact Future Forecast?

Last week I wrote about the potential benefits in forecasting results based on removing outliers from one-time events. A key question that came up because of that post was this: How long does a change in demand as a result of an event (whether up or down) impact forecasts in the future? Rather than theorize

By | December 21st, 2016|Demand Planning, Forecasting|0 Comments

The Effect of Currency Demonetization on Statistical Forecasting

How does currency demonetization affect statistical forecasting? The Government of India recently enacted the policy to demonetize Rupees 500 and 1,000 banknotes. ( ₹500 and ₹1,000). All bank notes of these denominations ceased to be legal tender on November 9, 2016. A Google search on this will reap rich returns; here is an article on this topic on

By | December 12th, 2016|Forecasting|2 Comments

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