What-if Wednesday: Forecast Simulation – What Happens if You Change The Alpha Parameter in a Forecasting Method?

From time to time, clients ask me about the effect of changing a parameter of a forecasting method. Recently, I got the idea of creating a series of blog posts where I would simulate the results of tweaking these parameters. Join me as we unpack a couple simple ways to improve your forecasts.

By |2019-04-13T23:09:33-04:00February 1st, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|2 Comments

[Simulation Results] How Does a Change in Demand From a One-Time Event Impact Future Forecast?

Last week I wrote about the potential benefits in forecasting results based on removing outliers from one-time events. A key question that came up because of that post was this: How long does a change in demand as a result of an event (whether up or down) impact forecasts in the future? Rather than theorize

By |2019-04-13T23:09:39-04:00December 21st, 2016|Demand Planning, Forecasting|0 Comments

The Effect of Currency Demonetization on Statistical Forecasting

How does currency demonetization affect statistical forecasting? The Government of India recently enacted the policy to demonetize Rupees 500 and 1,000 banknotes. ( ₹500 and ₹1,000). All bank notes of these denominations ceased to be legal tender on November 9, 2016. A Google search on this will reap rich returns; here is an article on this topic on

By |2019-04-13T23:09:39-04:00December 12th, 2016|Forecasting|2 Comments

Three Steps to a Better Statistical Forecast Setup

Sometimes companies implement a forecasting system but do not realize the anticipated gains in the forecast accuracy. Very often, it is not the actual software but the setup that is to be blamed. And I do not mean the setup at the technical (parameter level) but more the process level. Read this blog post on how to get the setup right.

By |2019-04-13T23:09:47-04:00March 22nd, 2016|Demand Planning, Forecasting, Supply Chain|5 Comments

Supply Chain Planning and an Uncertain Economy

Supply Chain Planning deals with the future and therefore uncertainty with economy. As a result, the planners sometimes have to question other people’s assumptions. Whether for this or some other reason, they do not get credit that is due to them for the great job they do. Eric Wilson from Tempur Sealy gives them the due credit and then some and calls them the super heroes of business. We agree!

By |2019-04-13T23:09:47-04:00March 2nd, 2016|Forecasting, General Topics, S&OP, Supply Chain|0 Comments

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