Two Penny Model and COVID-19 Breakthrough Cases – Avoiding Data Driven Disaster
Learn how a simple binomial model can help anticipate the future including COVID-19 breakthrough cases just as models help a firm estimate it's future.
Classical Supply Chain Management Confronts its Quantum Revolution – the Path to Rapid Intelligent Response (RIR)
COVID-19 direct and ancillary events have made clear that uncertainty is an inherent part of the demand-supply network structure. Every firm, on a regular basis, faces “risk situations" such as manufacturing excursion, unexpected new demand or loss of demand, component supplier interruption, etc. This has placed risk management and rapid intelligent response (RIR) front and center in SCM discussions.
Time Series Forecasting Basics
In this blog we briefly cover some key insights for successful time series forecasting: (a) Profiling the Shape of the Curve is the first stage, and the first step is assessing if the time series is stationary. (b) The forecast method identified must capture the shape and be able to project the shape across time. (c) There are limits in historical and no amount of “fancy math” can overcome them.
Data Science Without Modeling Impact is a Path to Disaster – Simulation to Explore the Impact of Group Size on COVID-19 Spread
In this blog post, we will briefly review some examples of being “COVID-19 adrift” with just data and then focus on the primary task – demonstrating how modeling can be used to understand the impact of group size on COVID-19 spread.
Insight from Applied Statisticians for Forecasting: Is It Worth the Effort and the Mirage of Random Variation?
In this blog, we will illustrate through an example of these potential pitfalls (unanchored, random variation, and narrow metrics) and potential negative impact on a firm.
Demand Versus Predict Variability – Avoiding a Paint by Numbers Disaster
In this blog, we will focus on protecting your investment. The example involves demand variability versus prediction variability and its impact on inventory policy and operational efficiencies. It is loosely based on a real situation from the trenches.
Invest in Supply Chain Management Technology: Efficiency Assessment
When and how to invest in supply chain management technology is a critical question for all firms that is not a one-time question, but ongoing...
Invest in Supply Chain Management Technology: Survival and Ability to Respond to Emerging Challenges
When and how to invest in supply chain management technology is a critical question for all firms that is not a one-time question but ongoing. This blog will observe the real business value is “survival and responsiveness” and elaborate on the challenges with this evaluation.
Lessons From the Operating Curve for the Dual Government COVID-19 Objectives: Reopen the Economy and Eliminate COVID-19
There is plenty of material being written and posted on the challenges, estimating the growth in COVID19 incidences, and thoughts about the economy. The purpose of this is to pull from experiences in the trenches in shifting OPCURVE to provide some guidance on actions to take to help the nation achieve both critical goals.
Taking the Mystery Out of the Rapid Growth of COVID-19 and the Purpose of Social Distancing – Some Basics for Octogenarians
The spread of the COVID19 virus is a major concern of everyone. Typically, two critical questions are being asked: why it seemed to grow so quickly over the last few weeks and what is the impact of social distancing. This blog provides a kitchen table explanation of “rapid growth” and how social distancing might dampen growth.