Three Steps to a Better Statistical Forecast Setup

Sometimes companies implement a forecasting system but do not realize the anticipated gains in the forecast accuracy. Very often, it is not the actual software but the setup that is to be blamed. And I do not mean the setup at the technical (parameter level) but more the process level. Read this blog post on how to get the setup right.

By |2019-08-28T12:53:08-04:00March 22nd, 2016|Demand Planning, Forecasting, Supply Chain|

Supply Chain Planning and an Uncertain Economy

Supply Chain Planning deals with the future and therefore uncertainty with economy. As a result, the planners sometimes have to question other people’s assumptions. Whether for this or some other reason, they do not get credit that is due to them for the great job they do. Eric Wilson from Tempur Sealy gives them the due credit and then some and calls them the super heroes of business. We agree!

By |2019-04-13T23:09:47-04:00March 2nd, 2016|Forecasting, General Topics, S&OP, Supply Chain|

Management and Supply Chain Planners: A case of hedgehog and the fox?

I was recently exposed to the idea of thinking like a hedgehog (one big idea) versus the fox (a lot of different ideas). So what happens when people who are more like hedgehogs in their line of work, interact with people who think like a fox? I just happen to know two such groups: Business leaders

By |2022-02-16T22:10:39-05:00November 10th, 2015|Demand Planning, General Topics, Supply Chain, Supply Planning|

Illusively Complex – Effective Approach to Mixing Judgment and Statistics in Forecasting

In 1994, the IBM Micro-electronics Division, itself a fortune 100 size firm, put in place a major effort to create best in class supply chain planning process and software including demand planning(DM), central planning, available to promise, et al. I was fortunate to be an original member and had the opportunity to work extensively on

By |2024-02-21T14:20:42-05:00October 13th, 2015|Demand Planning|

Using Coefficient of Variation as a Guide for Safety Stocks

In one of my previous posts, I wrote about using coefficient of variation (CV) as a predictor of forecastability. In this post, I will talk about how it can be used to indicate a sensitivity of lead time towards the safety stock calculations. To quickly remind the reader first: The formula for CV = StdDev

Do You Use Coefficient Of Variation To Determine Forecastability?

Key Point: Coefficient of Variation is not a perfect measure of forecastability. However, if used properly, it can add value to a business’s forecasting process. In the world of forecasting, one of the key questions to consider is the forecastability of a particular set of data. For example, a salesman might consistently be better at

By |2019-08-28T11:45:34-04:00August 11th, 2015|Demand Planning, Forecasting, General Topics, Supply Chain|

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