Machine Learning: Optimization and Community Intelligence – A Wiser Forecasting
Learn the importance of advanced optimization for statistics (AOS) even for simple methods such as exponential smoothing and the importance of community intelligence.
Machine Learning and AI: Profiling Demand History – A Wiser Forecasting
In the simple version of supply chain management (SCM) the goal for demand forecasting in the tactical decision tier is prediction accuracy. In the wiser version, the purpose is expanded to include an understanding of your demand (demand profiling)...
Executive Perceptions of Machine Learning and Data Anomalies
The chatter about Artificial Intelligence’s (AI) and its recent companion, machine learning (ML) is ever-present. In a wide range of economic activities, AI/ML methods are now standard practice...
Lessons From the Operating Curve for the Dual Government COVID-19 Objectives: Reopen the Economy and Eliminate COVID-19
There is plenty of material being written and posted on the challenges, estimating the growth in COVID19 incidences, and thoughts about the economy. The purpose of this is to pull from experiences in the trenches in shifting OPCURVE to provide some guidance on actions to take to help the nation achieve both critical goals.
Some Basics on the Value of S Curves and Market Adoption of a New Product
An ongoing challenge for any firm is estimating demand for new products. This is especially true when the product has new technology or is replacing an existing product and the additional function in the new product is limited. Often a mathematical construct called an S curve is helpful. This blog provides an overview of S curves and why they can be helpful.
Taking the Mystery Out of the Rapid Growth of COVID-19 and the Purpose of Social Distancing – Some Basics for Octogenarians
The spread of the COVID19 virus is a major concern of everyone. Typically, two critical questions are being asked: why it seemed to grow so quickly over the last few weeks and what is the impact of social distancing. This blog provides a kitchen table explanation of “rapid growth” and how social distancing might dampen growth.
Conditional Probability Made Easy – Heart of Machine Learning
Probabilities are persuasive in supply chains and analytic methods – especially in machine learning where conditional probability is a dominant underlying structure that makes or breaks the success of an application. In this blog, we will learn how to take the mystery out of the term ‘conditional probability’.
In Search of the Dashboard You Deserve
Most software packages show current views of current forecasts, sales, production, and inventory. But what if you wanted visibility of the underlying trends, changes, patterns in all systems...
Shutdown Days & Demand Patterns
Shutdown days are either planned well in advance or inadvertent and unwelcome manufacturing excursion- this is a factory issue, not a demand issue. The answer is simple...
Lots of Zeroes? Basic Guidelines to Managing Intermittent Demand – Part 2
In Part 1 of this blog, we closed with the following question: “OK, intermittent demand creates a challenge, but I still need a demand estimate, what do I do!” Below we will provide an answer, but with a different orientation that begins with the question: “what is the purpose of the demand estimate?”