What-if Wednesday: Forecast Simulation – What Happens if You Change The Alpha Parameter in a Forecasting Method?

From time to time, clients ask me about the effect of changing a parameter of a forecasting method. Recently, I got the idea of creating a series of blog posts where I would simulate the results of tweaking these parameters. Join me as we unpack a couple simple ways to improve your forecasts.

By |2019-04-13T23:09:33-04:00February 1st, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|

A New Year Resolution for Supply Chain Planners: Stop Firefighting

2017 Supply chain productivity and prioritization tips for supply chain planners.  Every morning, a supply chain planner must make this decision; “what should I work on today?” In a supply chain of any reasonable complexity, this question can easily be answered with the corresponding fire of the day. On any given day, a supply chain

By |2019-04-13T23:09:38-04:00January 10th, 2017|Demand Planning, Supply Chain, Supply Planning|

[Simulation Results] How Does a Change in Demand From a One-Time Event Impact Future Forecast?

Last week I wrote about the potential benefits in forecasting results based on removing outliers from one-time events. A key question that came up because of that post was this: How long does a change in demand as a result of an event (whether up or down) impact forecasts in the future? Rather than theorize

By |2019-04-13T23:09:39-04:00December 21st, 2016|Demand Planning, Forecasting|

The Effect of Currency Demonetization on Statistical Forecasting

How does currency demonetization affect statistical forecasting? The Government of India recently enacted the policy to demonetize Rupees 500 and 1,000 banknotes. ( ₹500 and ₹1,000). All bank notes of these denominations ceased to be legal tender on November 9, 2016. A Google search on this will reap rich returns; here is an article on this topic on

By |2019-04-13T23:09:39-04:00December 12th, 2016|Forecasting|

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