What-if Wednesday: Seasonality Forecast Simulation (Gamma Parameter)
Seasonality forecast simulation: what is the effect of changing the gamma parameter in Holt-Winters forecasting method?
What-if Wednesday: Forecast Simulation – Changing The Beta Parameter in a Forecasting Method
In our previous blog, we experimented with Alpha - the intercept parameter of the Holt-Winters method - to see how the forecast gets affected as the weight changes. This week we are going to run similar tests with Beta, the trend parameter. Learn how you can use your recent sales trends to improve future forecasts.
[Infographic] Forecast Improvement Steps: Simulate, Measure, Refine
The forecasting process in demand planning sets the stage for all other planning activities including bill of material (BOM) and finished goods inventory optimization. Demand forecasts can also affect perfect order fulfillment rates, customer satisfaction and ultimately bottom line results.
B2B Demand Sensing: 7 Things You Must Know
In webinar on B2B Demand Sensing, we discuss practical examples of how upstream manufacturers are using B2B Demand sensing to reduce inventory costs and identify additional sales opportunities.
What-if Wednesday: Forecast Simulation – What Happens if You Change The Alpha Parameter in a Forecasting Method?
From time to time, clients ask me about the effect of changing a parameter of a forecasting method. Recently, I got the idea of creating a series of blog posts where I would simulate the results of tweaking these parameters. Join me as we unpack a couple simple ways to improve your forecasts.
A New Year Resolution for Supply Chain Planners: Stop Firefighting
2017 Supply chain productivity and prioritization tips for supply chain planners. Every morning, a supply chain planner must make this decision; “what should I work on today?” In a supply chain of any reasonable complexity, this question can easily be answered with the corresponding fire of the day. On any given day, a supply chain
[Simulation Results] How Does a Change in Demand From a One-Time Event Impact Future Forecast?
Last week I wrote about the potential benefits in forecasting results based on removing outliers from one-time events. A key question that came up because of that post was this: How long does a change in demand as a result of an event (whether up or down) impact forecasts in the future? Rather than theorize
The Effect of Currency Demonetization on Statistical Forecasting
How does currency demonetization affect statistical forecasting? The Government of India recently enacted the policy to demonetize Rupees 500 and 1,000 banknotes. ( ₹500 and ₹1,000). All bank notes of these denominations ceased to be legal tender on November 9, 2016. A Google search on this will reap rich returns; here is an article on this topic on
5 Spooky Excel Error Tales That Could Become Your Nightmare
This Halloween, while kids dress up in cute costumes to go trick-or-treating and homes gear up with their most ghoulish décor ever, there might be a real life “bogeyman” lurking in the shadows. A serious Excel error could cost a business thousands or millions of dollars. And while this kind of monster may not be
A Five-Step Approach to Effective Demand Planning Implementation
Good handling of market demand data is one of the most vital concepts in any supply chain. But how to create powerful demand planning implementation? The five-step approach outlined below provides guidance.