Abhishek Shah

About Abhishek Shah

Joining Arkieva in 2013, Abhishek works as a Consultant and Project Manager helping various Manufacturing, Chemical, and CPG industry clients. He holds a Bachelor’s degree from IIT Roorkee and a Master's degree from The University of Wisconsin-Madison in Industrial Engineering. At Arkieva he helps in implementing and supporting various supply chain planning modules such as demand, supply, single and multi-echelon inventory. He is also APICS CPIM, CSCP and CLTD certified.

We compared the Accuracy of 4 Different Demand Forecasting Methods; Here’s What We Found.

Over the past few months, we’ve been running simulation tests on different demand forecasting methods: Winter’s additive & multiplicative, seasonal and robust seasonal. Then, we used MAPE to determine the forecast accuracy for each method. Here’s what we found.

By | July 27th, 2017|Demand Planning, Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|1 Comment

What-if Wednesday: Seasonal Model Forecasting with Seasonal Methods

Seasonal method is a regression method that fits a linear trend along with sine and cosine curves. These sine and cosine portions of the regression can fit any seasonal deviations from the linear trend. Robust seasonal method also fits a trend along with sine and cosine curves, however this method uses linear programming to fit a seasonal series in a way that compared to the regular seasonal method is less likely to be thrown off by noisy values that depart from the trend or seasonality.

By | July 5th, 2017|Forecasting|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Holt-Winters Multiplicative Forecast Damping Factor Simulation

In the previous What-if Wednesday posts, we experimented with the three parameters of the Holt-Winters Multiplicative method, namely; alpha, beta, and gamma. This time we are going to run similar tests by adjusting damping factor for the Winters Multiplicative method.

By | June 14th, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Forecast Parameter Simulation – Gamma Multiplicative Method

In this week’s What-if Wednesday post, Arkieva Supply Chain Optimization Consultant – Abhishek Shah – shares the results of a what-if demand forecast simulation using the gamma multiplicative forecast parameter of the Winters forecasting method.

By | May 31st, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Forecast Parameter Simulation – Beta Multiplicative Method

In this week’s What-if Wednesday post, Arkieva Supply Chain Optimization Consultant – Abhishek Shah – shares the results of a what-if demand forecast simulation using the Winters multiplicative beta parameter.

By | April 19th, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Multiplicative Forecast Simulation Using Alpha

In this week's What-if Wednesday post, Arkieva Supply Chain Optimization Consultant - Abhishek Shah - shares the results of a what-if demand forecast simulation using the Winters multiplicative alpha parameter.

By | March 29th, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Statistical Forecasting with Damping Factors

In the previous What-if Wednesday previous posts, we experimented with the three parameters of Holt-Winters method, namely; alpha, beta, and gamma. This week we are going to run some tests with the damping factor.

By | March 15th, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Seasonality Forecast Simulation (Gamma Parameter)

Seasonality forecast simulation: what is the effect of changing the gamma parameter in Holt-Winters forecasting method?

By | March 1st, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Forecast Simulation – Changing The Beta Parameter in a Forecasting Method

In our previous blog, we experimented with Alpha - the intercept parameter of the Holt-Winters method - to see how the forecast gets affected as the weight changes. This week we are going to run similar tests with Beta, the trend parameter. Learn how you can use your recent sales trends to improve future forecasts.

By | February 15th, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Forecast Simulation – What Happens if You Change The Alpha Parameter in a Forecasting Method?

From time to time, clients ask me about the effect of changing a parameter of a forecasting method. Recently, I got the idea of creating a series of blog posts where I would simulate the results of tweaking these parameters. Join me as we unpack a couple simple ways to improve your forecasts.

By | February 1st, 2017|Forecasting, What-if Wednesday|2 Comments

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