How does currency demonetization affect statistical forecasting? The Government of India recently enacted the policy to demonetize Rupees 500 and 1,000 banknotes. ( ₹500 and ₹1,000). All bank notes of these denominations ceased to be legal tender on November 9, 2016. A Google search on this will reap rich returns; here is an article on this topic on
Good handling of market demand data is one of the most vital concepts in any supply chain. But how to create powerful demand planning implementation? The five-step approach outlined below provides guidance.
In 1994, the IBM Micro-electronics Division, itself a fortune 100 size firm, put in place a major effort to create best in class supply chain planning process and software including demand planning(DM), central planning, available to promise, et al. I was fortunate to be an original member and had the opportunity to work extensively on
In one of my previous posts, I wrote about using coefficient of variation (CV) as a predictor of forecastability. In this post, I will talk about how it can be used to indicate a sensitivity of lead time towards the safety stock calculations. To quickly remind the reader first: The formula for CV = StdDev
I spent some time discussing MAPE and WMAPE in prior posts. In this post, I will discuss Forecast BIAS. Forecast BIAS can be loosely described as a tendency to either Forecast BIAS is described as a tendency to either over-forecast (meaning, more often than not, the forecast is more than the actual), or under-forecast (meaning, more often
In our line of work at Arkieva, when we ask this question of business folks: What is your forecast accuracy? Depending on who we ask in the same business, we can get a full range of answers from 50% (or lower) to 95% (or higher). How is this possible? Imagine a management team being given
Extending sales and operations collaboration requires a clear articulation of business rules and information transfers. As a result, knowing exactly what questions to ask is crucial. In this short blog series, I will provide a list of questions to ask the various roles and people involved in the S&OP process. These questions can make a
In our last post, Sujit discussed the importance of gathering input from participants as a way to mitigate biases. In this post, I will explain why the sales team should be required participants and what their influence is on the forecasting process.