Should I Use Order Lead Time for Demand Segmentation?

To set the foundation for this discussion, let us first look at the definition of order lead time. Order lead time is the time gap between the date when a customer places an order and when they expect to receive the product. Typically, in a B2B environment, the expectation is that there will be some gap between the two dates, and in many cases, this gap can be negotiated.

By |2019-04-13T23:09:08-04:00March 27th, 2018|Demand Planning, Segmentation|0 Comments

Can Demand Segmentation Improve Your Statistical Forecast?

Imagine a demand planner working with 10,000 unique combinations. One of the not so envious tasks for this person would be to generate statistical forecast for all these combinations. These days, the statistical forecasting tools available on the market can forecast these combinations using a list of forecasting methods and figure out which method works best for a particular combination.

By |2019-04-13T23:09:08-04:00March 22nd, 2018|Demand Planning|0 Comments

How Does My Open Order History Impact My Sales Prediction?

An open order is defined as an order placed by the customer which is under process and is yet to be fulfilled by the supplier. For effective analysis, open order data needs to be recorded daily in an ERP system. A minimum of twelve to eighteen months of open order history is required for your sales forecasting analysis and fine-tuning process. A shorter period could render unreliable and skew the results of your data analysis.

By |2019-04-13T23:09:09-04:00March 2nd, 2018|Demand Planning, Forecasting|0 Comments

What-if Wednesday: Seasonal Model Forecasting with Seasonal Methods

Seasonal method is a regression method that fits a linear trend along with sine and cosine curves. These sine and cosine portions of the regression can fit any seasonal deviations from the linear trend. Robust seasonal method also fits a trend along with sine and cosine curves, however this method uses linear programming to fit a seasonal series in a way that compared to the regular seasonal method is less likely to be thrown off by noisy values that depart from the trend or seasonality.

By |2019-04-13T23:09:23-04:00July 5th, 2017|Forecasting|0 Comments

How Does a Demand Forecast of Zero Impact Your Forecast Accuracy?

For most businesses that rely on demand forecasts for supply and capacity planning, improving demand forecast accuracy is critical. There are many methods to measure forecast bias and the accuracy of supply chain forecasts including using statistical methods like the Mean Absolute Percent Error or MAPE that we’ve discussed in our previous blogs.

By |2019-04-13T23:09:24-04:00June 20th, 2017|Forecasting|0 Comments

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