What is the ‘Secret Sauce’ to Improve Demand Planning?
Successful demand planning requires a stable and sustainable planning process that is continuously reviewed and improved.
4 Barriers to Capturing True Demand
If one is going to forecast demand into the future, it would make sense to get as true a picture as possible. For that, starting with historical demand would be the obvious choice. Choosing this data as the basis for forecasting would ensure the best possible projection out in the future.
How “Forecastable” is Your Data? It’s Complex Anyway You Look at It
These “key tools” balance a need for simple with a need to handle the complexity of SCM – following the IBM adage – complexity exists whether you ignore it or not, best not to ignore it.
Using Coefficient of Variation to Drive Safety Stock Related Decisions
In a previous blog post, we discussed how a high or low value of Coefficient of Variation (CV) impacts the first or second term of safety stock. Today we decided to put this to the test using real customer data - here we will discuss our findings.
Illusively Complex – Effective Approach to Mixing Judgment and Statistics in Forecasting
In 1994, the IBM Micro-electronics Division, itself a fortune 100 size firm, put in place a major effort to create best in class supply chain planning process and software including demand planning(DM), central planning, available to promise, et al. I was fortunate to be an original member and had the opportunity to work extensively on
Using Coefficient of Variation as a Guide for Safety Stocks
In one of my previous posts, I wrote about using coefficient of variation (CV) as a predictor of forecastability. In this post, I will talk about how it can be used to indicate a sensitivity of lead time towards the safety stock calculations. To quickly remind the reader first: The formula for CV = StdDev
How to Report Forecast Accuracy to Management
In our line of work at Arkieva, when we ask this question of business folks: What is your forecast accuracy? Depending on who we ask in the same business, we can get a full range of answers from 50% (or lower) to 95% (or higher). How is this possible? Imagine a management team being given
8 Ways to Encourage Sales Teams to Provide Forecast Input
Sales is a fast-paced business; people who aren’t focused on the here and now usually lose out on sales. As mentioned in Jelle’s blog, sales persons would rather be out in the field selling, which is the reason why they feel it would be a waste of their resources sitting in their office forecasting. Yet,
Let’s Talk – Demand Planner to Account Executive
In our last post, Sujit discussed the importance of gathering input from participants as a way to mitigate biases. In this post, I will explain why the sales team should be required participants and what their influence is on the forecasting process.
5 Reasons Collaboration Can Make Your Forecast Better
When businesses try to predict their future demand, they often begin with a mathematics based statistical forecast. Once this is established, some users are asked to provide overrides that can make this statistical forecast better. Typically, this is asked of users who have a client facing role.