Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use?
Here are some guidelines on selecting the right statistical forecasting methods for your business.
What is Statistical Forecasting? A Snowfall-based Explanation
During the last storm, I was watching the snow plows go to work and thinking about the amount of planning that must go into the resources needed to deal with the snow - what with salt, and plows needed. That must be a whole supply chain.
Do Returns Impact My Forecast Error Calculation Negatively?
Should you factor returns in your forecast error calculation? In this article, we’ll use a sample data set, to demonstrate if you should consider returns when calculating your forecast errors.
Should I Use Order Lead Time for Demand Segmentation?
To set the foundation for this discussion, let us first look at the definition of order lead time. Order lead time is the time gap between the date when a customer places an order and when they expect to receive the product. Typically, in a B2B environment, the expectation is that there will be some gap between the two dates, and in many cases, this gap can be negotiated.
Can Demand Segmentation Improve Your Statistical Forecast?
Imagine a demand planner working with 10,000 unique combinations. One of the not so envious tasks for this person would be to generate statistical forecast for all these combinations. These days, the statistical forecasting tools available on the market can forecast these combinations using a list of forecasting methods and figure out which method works best for a particular combination.
6 Ways You Can Improve Forecast Accuracy with Demand Sensing
Demand sensing helps us identify the actual customer order trends and helps us improve the near-term forecast. Strategic actions like demand shaping for knowingly increasing or decreasing the demand for the product can be undertaken by sensing demand signals.
What is the bullwhip effect and How do you minimize it?
The bullwhip effect is a concept for explaining inventory fluctuations or inefficient asset allocation as a result of demand changes as you move further up the supply chain. As such, upstream manufacturers often experience a decrease in forecast accuracy as the buffer increases between the customer and the manufacturer.
Can Supply Chain Optimization Lead to a Road Less Traveled?
An optimization model does the same; it calculates the decisions based on the stated preferences and constraints in the model. That can sometimes have the inadvertent effect of finding new pathways, a road less, if ever, traveled.
Supply Chain Optimization in Supply Planning: How to Develop a New Way of Thinking
Naturally, supply chain optimization in supply planning can feel counterintuitive. Here’s why you should combat that feeling to create the best plan possible.
How to Establish Early Warning Supply Chain Metrics
In recent webinars and presentations, I have been talking about Early Warning Systems within the context of supply chains. The news story above made me think of several examples where a supply chain would use similar concepts to develop early warning metrics.