National Puzzle Day is January 29th. It is a day Arkieva celebrates because the ongoing challenge of smarter supply chain decisions involves supersized puzzles and games. This year we will focus on probabilistic forecasting using the board game Risk. This blog will show how Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to estimate the average number of “wins”, but critically the range of possible “wins” across some interval.
In previous “tools of the trade” blogs, the focus has been on conveying a basic understanding of core technologies critical to improving supply chain management decision making. Other blogs have focused on investing in technology. As with any investment there are risks to success. This blog focuses on the need for a small group driving technology that upsets the social order called agents of change (AOC).
Industry analysts, big-time consultants, and your peers are all talking about technology, digital transformation, and the future of the supply chain. It can seem like a lot of noise given the day-to-day pressure you feel while working to ensure that inventory is on hand and positioned where it is supposed to be. With all you have on your plate, are you aware of the signs that it is time for a change?
With the new year comes pundit “prediction season”. It seems that anyone who can type will post their list of things to look out for. It’s human nature to look ahead and anticipate what may be. We all look back to look forward – just like a good demand forecast does. And if you think about it, most calendar-year business plans are in truth, predictions about the year to come.
Circularity, in the form of re-use, is not really new as a business model. Look at Goodwill, Habitat For Humanity’s Re-Store, and countless local consignment and thrift stores. eBay, Etsy, and Facebook Marketplace provide an online forum to convert one person’s trash to someone else’s treasure. A quick trip to the post office and the deal is sealed. Waste averted.
If one is going to forecast demand into the future, it would make sense to get as true a picture as possible. For that, starting with historical demand would be the obvious choice. Choosing this data as the basis for forecasting would ensure the best possible projection out in the future.
Having a good forecast is essential to demand planning. It ensures the right goods are produced at the right time and reach the right customers. What’s more is that demand planning is situated at the start of your supply chain, playing an integral part in a streamlined supply chain.
Subscribe and save makes planning easier. Consistent demand means less fluctuation in order volume, which makes forecasting, inventory management and scheduling more predictable.
Arkieva prides itself on providing some of the best in supply chain thought leadership. Over 300,000 individuals read our blog articles in 2021. The volatile nature of the supply chain today drove our readers to educate themselves on practical actions they can take to remain competitive.
We are excited to announce that we are rebranding Arkieva to fuel growth, strengthen our position in the market, and continue to be a recognized leader in the supply chain industry. Over the past few years, we have been relentlessly focused on solving the most complex planning challenges through simple, intuitive, end-to-end solutions leveraging our best-in-class data scientists, software developers, and supply chain optimization consultants.